Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange on Oct. 24, 2024.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters
Stock futures rose sharply in overnight trading as investors bet that former President Donald Trump will retake the White House.
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average popped 800 points, or about 1.9%. S&P 500 futures gained 1.7% and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 1.6%.
Bitcoin jumped to a record high, and the U.S. dollar — which was expected by Wall Street to rise in the event of a Trump win — was rallying against other global currencies. Futures for the small cap benchmark Russell 2000, also a projected Trump beneficiary, jumped 5%.
Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group, a social media company closely tied to the candidate, surged 40% in overnight trading on the Robinhood brokerage platform.
The 10-year Treasury yield surged to around 4.43% on speculation Trump’s proposed tax cuts and other spending plans would increase the fiscal deficit, while possible tariffs could reignite inflation.
Americans cast their votes across the country in the tight race between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. By 2:07 a.m. ET, NBC News had projected that Trump had won 266 electoral college votes, including the swing states of Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia, four electoral votes away from a projected win. The projected victory in key battleground state Pennsylvania marked a major step for Trump to clinch the White House. Wisconsin and Michigan are still too close to call. Follow CNBC’s 2024 election live blog here.
NBC News also projected that Republicans would retake the Senate, but control of the House of Representatives remains undecided.
Goldman Sachs predicts that a Trump win and Republican sweep of Congress would spark a 3% pop in the S&P 500. Even a Trump win and a divided Congress would cause about a 1.5% gain, the bank predicts. On the other hand, a Harris win with a divided Congress would cause a 1.5% drop in the S&P 500, the bank told its clients.
“I very much ascribe to that view that a Trump victory would be very good for stocks,” Jason Trennert, chairman at Strategas, said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Power Lunch.” “And I think a Harris victory would not be particularly good for risk assets.”
Trump’s agenda of tax cuts could give Corporate America a tangible boost, but steep tariffs and a potential global trade war under his presidency could cause more uncertainty and a resurgence of inflation. In a Harris administration, the risk of tighter regulations could bring more scrutiny to industries such as banks and health care, while Democrats’ support for clean energy could lift electric vehicle companies and solar firms.
Investors are also closely watching if the partisan makeup of the houses of Congress remains divided. A Republican or Democratic sweep could lead to more drastic spending changes or a big revamp of tax policy.
The stock market staged a broad rally Tuesday before the election results were in with the S&P 500 gaining 1.2%, bringing the benchmark’s 2024 gains to more than 21%.
