Wall Street reacts to historic global sell-off: Markets are in an ‘aggressive risk-unwind’

(This is CNBC Pro’s live coverage of Monday’s Wall Street chatter as global markets sell off. Please refresh every 20-30 minutes to view the latest posts.) Stock markets around the world are selling off to start the week, as investors fear the U.S. could be headed into a recession amid a spate of softening economic data. Japan’s Nikkei 225 had its biggest one-day drop since 1987 overnight, losing 12.4% . The Korean Kospi index also shed 8.7%. In Europe , the Stoxx 600 index has shed more than 2%. U.S. stock futures also pointed to steep losses at Monday’s open . Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down more than 600 points, or 1.6%. Nasdaq-100 futures plunged 4.3%, and S & P 500 futures lost 2.6%. Follow along for the latest chatter and reaction to the sell-off. All times ET. 7:45 a.m.: Wharton’s Siegel says the Fed should move forward with two 75-basis point rate cuts Jeremy Siegel, professor of finance at Wharton, told CNBC’s ” Squawk Box ” on Monday that the Federal Reserve needs to cut rates twice by 75 basis points after the release of disappointing economic data and a global market sell-off. Siegel underscored that the U.S. central bank has now “overshot” both its employment and inflation rate targets. On the other hand, the Fed hasn’t moved its fed funds rate, which “makes absolutely no sense whatsoever,” Siegel added. To be sure, Siegel noted it’s highly unlikely the Fed does go through with two 75-basis point cuts. At this point, he also believes that the “market knows so much better than the Fed.” “[The Fed] has got to respond. … They’re basically at the target, and there’s a lag in monetary policy,” Siegel added. “If they’re going to be as slow on the way down as they were on the way up — which by the way, was the worst policy error in 50 years — then we’re not in for a good time with this economy.” — Lisa Kailai Han 7:10 a.m.: Fundstrat’s Tom Lee says watch this key indicator as market sells off With a global sell-off brewing, Fundstrat Global Advisors’ Tom Lee thinks that investors should be paying a close eye on the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) . The Vix is a popular fear gauge on Wall Street. It soared above 50 on Monday, reaching levels not seen since 2020. But as volatility subsides, Lee thinks the market could quickly rebound once its current elevated volatility levels fall. .VIX 5Y mountain VIX 5-yr chart “Declines like that are generally symmetric, but you have to watch the VIX and when the VIX peaks and starts to roll over and fall down, the recovery can be just as quick,” he said during a CNBC “Squawk Box” interview. “We know markets are nervous and they have to unwind. But it’s not yet a bad time to be thinking that there is a big opportunity on the other side because once the VIX starts to calm down and markets have already corrected, we know that there’s opportunity.” — Lisa Kailai Han 7:02 a.m.: How long sell-offs typically last Bad news: The current market sell-off may have further to go. Data compiled by HSBC shows sell-offs for the S & P 500 typically last one month, with the benchmark losing 10% on average. “In this Sell-Off phase there are relatively few places to hide. [Developed market] defensives, the FTSE 100 and the S & P 500 generally hold up a little better on average. Yet all three still typically fall on an absolute basis in a Sell-Off environment,” wrote strategist Duncan Toms. To be sure, this could “present an opportunity to scale up risk exposure, at least tactically – but not yet,” Toms added. The S & P 500 entered Monday’s session down more than 5% from an all-time high reached last month. .SPX mountain 2024-07-16 SPX since July 16 — Fred Imbert 6:42 a.m.: G Squared Private Wealth’s Victoria Green: ‘Panic is never a smart investment strategy’ It might be easy to turn bearish after a historic sell-off, but Victoria Greene thinks investors should take a step back. “Some of this is so much panic after we were so quiet. All of a sudden we flipped into panic mode and panic is never a smart investment strategy,” Greene, founding partner and chief investment officer at G Squared Private Wealth, told CNBC’s ” Worldwide Exchange ” on Monday. “Take a deep breath this morning. It’s probably not the end of the world.” Still, she acknowledged: “It’s probably not all horrible and it’s probably not all good, but it’s hurting.” Nimrit Kang agreed with Greene’s viewpoint that some of this selloff could be attributed to a market overreaction. “There’s a lot of froth built into the market coming into the second half, so seems like your normal intra-year decline here,” said the chief investment officer at NorthStar Asset Management in the same interview. — Lisa Kailai Han 6:16 a.m.: Investors say it’s ‘not time to hit the exit button yet’ following Japan-led sell-off A Japan-led global selloff sent markets into a tailspin to kick the week off, but several on the Street told CNBC on Monday morning that it’s not time to panic just yet. Dan Ives, tech analyst at Wedbush, acknowledged markets is in a “panic period,” especially as the technology sector takes a hit. Still, “this is not the time to panic in our opinion,” he said on the show. “It’s not the time to hit the exit buttons.” Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera, and Gennadiy Goldberg, head of U.S. rates strategy at TD Securities, echoed Ives’ sentiment on CNBC’s ” Worldwide Exchange .” While the CME FedWatch Tool shows the market has priced in a 50-basis point at the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, Goldman said that such a large cut seemed “outrageous” especially given “respectful” data like the current unemployment and GDP rates. He added that there still haven’t been enough bad data points yet to fully justify the market’s conclusion. Likewise, Goldberg agreed that the U.S. central bank is more likely to cut rates by 25 basis points throughout the rest of the year. “We haven’t seen a crisis yet,” he remarked. — Lisa Kailai Han 6:09 a.m.: Oppenheimer’s Stoltzfus: Best to not ‘jump to conclusions’ Investors need to have a cool head as global markets sell off, according to Oppenheimer’s John Stoltzfus. The sell-off that took place looked to us like the actions of a mix of bears—many of whom ironically had capitulated in droves throughout the first half of this year, nervous investors, and short-term traders who found catalyst as well in the reaction to the jobs number to take some profits without FOMO (fear of missing out),” the firm’s chief investment strategist wrote. “Based on the inherent volatility that the monthly jobs number has displayed in past revisions — sometimes better and sometimes worse — we would think it best for now not to jump to conclusions,” he added. — Fred Imbert 5:51 a.m.: Recession signals are ‘coming home to roost’, Evercore ISI says Signs of a recession are starting to pile up, according to Evercore ISI Chairman Ed Hyman. “With the soft employment report, the NASDAQ correction, the plunge in bond yields, and the plunge in commodity prices, it’s possible we’re seeing recession signals coming home to roost,” Hyman wrote in a Sunday note. His comments came after the U.S. government reported employment growth that was well below economist expectations on Friday. That report sent equities tumbling, with the Nasdaq Composite closing in a correction — down more than 10% below. The data also led to some on the Street to increase their odds for a 0.5 percentage point rate cut from the Federal Reserve. “Odds of a soft landing will increase if China weakness leads to a deeper plunge in WTI, pushing down inflation further, and allowing the Fed to be more aggressive,” Hyman wrote. “Odds of a hard landing will increase if China’s economy weakens too much, if house prices weaken too much, and/or if employment weakens too much.” — Fred Imbert 5:51 a.m.: Global markets in an ‘aggressive risk-unwind’, Vital Knowledge says Fears of a U.S. recession are pressuring global markets, leading investors around the world to sell some of this year’s top winners, according to Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge. “Markets are caught in an aggressive risk-unwind as equities plunge around the world, with tech getting hit particularly hard,” he wrote in a note Monday. “There are fundamental underpinnings of the price action directionally (weak US growth, worries the Fed is ‘behind the curve’, some disappointing earnings reports during the Q2 season, worries about AI-related capex spending, etc.), but technical factors account for the velocity and magnitude of what’s happened in the last couple of sessions and into this morning.” Some of those technical drivers include “portfolio damage” that has spurred a “overall de-risking, creating a negative feedback loop whereby selling begets more selling.” “In addition, even fundamental bulls don’t see much reason to dive into the market given poor Aug seasonals and the absence of major catalysts in the immediate term … while Fed officials won’t overreact to a single labor report,” Crisafulli said. The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) , which tracks the S & P 500 tech sector, dropped 5.5% in the premarket Monday. XLK 1D mountain XLK plunges — Fred Imbert